Babaumma – JAKARTA — Amidst Indonesia’s 2026 State Budget (RAPBN) projecting a 5.4% economic growth, 9.8% revenue growth, and a 2.48% deficit of GDP, JP Morgan has identified several attractive stocks.
JP Morgan’s analyst team, led by Henry Wibowo, views the macroeconomic assumptions and the 2026 RAPBN presented by President Prabowo Subianto as achieving a proper balance. This balance, they argue, maintains fiscal discipline, allocates funds for strategic government programs and long-term investments, while also addressing short-term needs to revitalize public consumption.
“We continue to favor domestically-oriented stocks with earnings visibility,” the team stated in a report published by Bloomberg on Thursday, August 21, 2025.
Furthermore, JP Morgan highlights the potential for accelerated government spending. Increased funding for the Free Nutritious Meal program (MBG) and further economic stimulus could significantly boost domestic consumption. This outlook leads them to recommend ICBP, INDF, AMRT, and ISAT as promising investment opportunities.
In addition to these, JP Morgan favors MAPI and MAPA, seeing potential for bottom fishing in these quality stocks. Within the property sector, CTRA and PWON are deemed primary beneficiaries of a potential upcoming global monetary easing cycle. The firm’s bullish outlook on gold is reflected in their selection of ANTM and SRTG.
Regarding the second half of 2025, JP Morgan anticipates potential upside from fiscal and monetary easing cycles. They foresee increased corporate earnings driven by this combined monetary and fiscal loosening. Lower interest rates could trigger a re-rating of Indonesian equities, currently trading at attractive valuations with a price-to-earnings ratio of 12 times—1.8 times the standard deviation below the 10-year average.
Fiscal spending is expected to increase in the second half of 2025, considering that first-half realization reached only 40% of the government’s fiscal year projection. Furthermore, tax revenue has shown signs of improvement in recent months (-4% YoY in the first half of 2025 compared to -14% in the first quarter of 2025), providing additional fiscal space for the second half.
Berikut Target Harga Saham Unggulan JP Morgan:
- ICBP target price: Rp12.900
- AMRT target price: Rp2.820
- ISAT target price: Rp2.830
- INDF target price: Rp9.450
- ANTM target price: Rp3.850
- SRTG target price: Rp2.300
- MAPI target price: Rp1.690
- MAPA target price: Rp1.025
- CTRA target price: Rp1.400
- PWON target price: Rp520
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Ringkasan
RAPBN 2026 memproyeksikan pertumbuhan ekonomi 5,4%, pendapatan 9,8%, dan defisit 2,48% dari PDB. JP Morgan menilai asumsi makroekonomi dan RAPBN 2026 seimbang, menjaga disiplin fiskal dan mengalokasikan dana untuk program strategis serta investasi jangka panjang. Mereka merekomendasikan saham-saham domestik dengan visibilitas pendapatan yang baik, di antaranya ICBP, INDF, AMRT, dan ISAT.
JP Morgan juga merekomendasikan MAPI dan MAPA, serta CTRA dan PWON di sektor properti yang berpotensi mendapatkan keuntungan dari pelonggaran moneter global. ANTM dan SRTG dipilih karena prospek emas yang positif. Peningkatan belanja pemerintah, terutama untuk program MBG, dan stimulus ekonomi diharapkan dapat mendorong konsumsi domestik. Target harga saham yang direkomendasikan bervariasi, mulai dari Rp520 hingga Rp12.900.